May 2025 Linkpost

I swear, my entire adult life has just been waiting for a recession that never fucking comes.

Philosophy & Human Nature

The Katechon Hypothesis for the Fermi Paradox (akarlin.com) This essay proposes that advanced civilizations might deliberately avoid expansion and destroy emerging ones to prevent overloading a simulated universe’s computational limits, leading to a shutdown—explaining the cosmic silence. Drawing on Bostrom’s simulation argument and game theory, it argues for a equilibrium of isolationism and xenocide, with civilizations running ancestor simulations reinforcing their belief in being simulated. Key ideas include computational constraints making interstellar growth uncontrollable, like historical expansions, and anomalies like supervoids as evidence of simulation interventions. I would note that calamities lay in ambush, and this could explain why figures like Elon Musk face hurdles—perhaps the Katechon at work.

Chattel Childhood: Treating Children as Property (aella.substack.com) Aella’s essay examines how children are historically and culturally treated as property, drawing parallels to slavery and critiquing cultural relativism in defining trauma. Key arguments include trauma being culturally constructed—“Trauma isn’t linked to the experience itself, but rather the meaning we make of that experience”—and agency violation as the core issue over pain. Examples range from Simbari rituals in Papua New Guinea, where boys ingest semen for life force without apparent Western trauma, to global violent punishment affecting 66% of children, with 43% in Africa facing severe abuse. Implications call for viewing children as whole persons, contrasting liberating homeschooling with agency-damaging public schools. I would highlight that this tame description pales compared to the harrowing childhoods detailed here.

Confusion Over Birth Order and Homosexuality (aella.substack.com) In this piece, Aella analyzes data from her Big Kink Survey (~770k valid responses) showing unexpected links between birth order and homosexuality, where older female siblings predict gayness more than males—contrary to established fraternal birth order effects. Methodology simplified sibling data into “mostly male/female” categories, finding “supergay%” rising from 1.3% to 2.9% for males with mostly-female siblings (vs. 0.7% increase for males). A 9-million sample comparison showed 12.5% higher same-sex union probability with older brothers. Conclusions puzzle over high gay rates and measurement differences, speculating on liberal exposure or statistical flukes (p≈1.7×10⁻¹⁰). My buddy would chuckle at the 10% chance one of Miranda’s kids turns out flamboyantly gay, but this data flips the script.

Academic Research & Science

Making AI Less Thirsty: The Water Footprint of Models (arxiv.org) This paper uncovers AI’s overlooked water footprint, estimating global AI demand could withdraw 4.2-6.6 billion cubic meters by 2027—equivalent to half the UK’s annual usage—with 87% tied to electricity cooling. Methodology develops estimates for withdrawal and consumption, using GPT-3’s training as a case: evaporating 700,000 liters of freshwater in U.S. data centers. No sample sizes, but projections highlight scarcity risks. Conclusions urge sustainable AI addressing both water and carbon; implications warn of exacerbating global freshwater challenges. Several AI queries equate to toasting bread, yet I’d argue we should prioritize cutting Netflix over AI, as one hour of streaming costs 24 ChatGPT queries.

World’s First Personalized CRISPR Therapy for Metabolic Disorder (chop.edu) A landmark study details treating infant KJ with severe CPS1 deficiency using base editing via lipid nanoparticles, correcting his genetic variant in three doses without serious side effects. Methodology built on preclinical research, designing the therapy in six months for liver delivery. Outcomes: increased protein tolerance, reduced medication, no ammonia buildup during illnesses (as of April 2025). Implications transform rare disease treatment, scaling personalized therapies for millions lacking options. A pal would call this the best news in ages, potentially extending to prenatal applications.

ChatGPT’s Failures in Basic Mapmaking (garymarcus.substack.com) Gary Marcus critiques ChatGPT’s inconsistent map generation for states with major ports and above-average income, producing five flawed versions with errors like highlighting Illinois or Vermont, and omitting Texas or the west coast. Methodology: iterative requests and feedback revealed unreliability. Conclusions: models struggle with precision despite training, akin to zero performance on financial benchmarks. Implications question AI safety without addressing instruction-following; neurosymbolic approaches suggested. I’d quip that Gary can’t prompt—Mapmaking 1010, perhaps.

The Southern Surge in Literacy Outcomes (karenvaites.org) This analysis details reading gains in Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Alabama via curriculum reforms, teacher training (e.g., 55-150 hours on Science of Reading), and retention policies. Data: Mississippi from 49th to 9th in 4th-grade proficiency, Louisiana no COVID dip, Tennessee top NAEP growth. Methodology: statewide initiatives like Guidebooks and Reading360. Conclusions: comprehensive investments raise outcomes despite poverty; implications urge focused funding and screening. It seems southern schools succeed by trying harder, teaching Black children better without excuses.

Mississippi’s Unexpected Educational Turnaround (educationdaly.us) The article argues Mississippi’s schools, once bottom-ranked, now lead demographically adjusted NAEP: 1st in 4th-grade math/reading, with Black students 1.5 grades ahead of Wisconsin’s despite lower spending. Comparisons: red states overtook blue in three NAEP tests by 2024; Mississippi reversed gaps with Maine. Arguments challenge biases ignoring southern successes. Conclusions: thoughtful strategies improve without big budgets; implications: biases waste resources, Democrats losing education ground. @Connor, what’s going on here?

Technology & Society

How to Generate Startup Ideas Organically (paulgraham.com) Paul Graham advises seeking problems from personal experience in rapidly evolving fields, building “wells” for urgent users, and ignoring filters for tedious or unsexy ideas. Examples: Facebook’s Harvard niche, Stripe’s payment schlep. Practical: question annoyances, build curiosities; broader: scale from niches, adapt like Airbnb. I would emphasize that YC founders recommend solving your own issues over surveying hundreds.

New Behaviors in AI-Assisted Communication (davidduncan.substack.com) This field guide lists ten AI-driven quirks like “chatjacked” (overly formal replies) and “GPTMI” (unsettling personalization), with examples of generic pastes or prompt leaks. Insights: authorship erodes—“The idea that you can read something and know who wrote it feels like it’s breaking down.” Implications: stifled authenticity, trust erosion in interactions. I’d observe this captures the weirdness of AI-shaped chats.

Chinese Espionage in Stanford Academia (stanfordreview.org) An investigation via 12+ interviews reveals CCP’s “non-traditional” spying using students under 2017 Intelligence Law, with cases like alias “Charles Chen” targeting researchers and Chen Song’s PLA ties. Findings: coercion via CSC scholarships, silence from fear. Implications: threats to U.S. security, need to protect research. One learns from colonial history that colonized often miss the bigger picture—could we be similarly unaware?

Reference & Curiosities

Operation Sea-Spray: U.S. Navy’s Secret Biowarfare Test (en.wikipedia.org) This 1950 experiment sprayed bacteria over San Francisco, exposing 800,000 residents to assess bioweapon vulnerability. Outcomes: pneumonia spike, one death (Edward Nevin), lawsuits failed due to unproven links. Noteworthy as part of 239 tests, revealing unethical exposures like zinc cadmium sulfide. I’d connect this to celebrating the U.S. Army without endorsing fascism—history’s complexities.

Rerum Novarum: On Capital and Labor (search.app) Pope Leo XIII’s 1891 encyclical defends private property, rejects socialism, and outlines rights/duties for workers/employers, urging Church/State roles and unions. Key: family primacy, just wages. Context: industrial inequities; implications: foundational Catholic social teaching. The new Pope cites this for his name, offering ethical guidance like protecting workers without partisanship.

The Space Barons: Musk, Bezos, and Space Colonization (g.co) Christian Davenport’s 2018 book chronicles the commercial space race, focusing on Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos’s quests to colonize space via SpaceX and Blue Origin. Themes: innovation, rivalry, billionaire-driven progress. Implications: shift from government to private space exploration. My friend would find this a fun read on barons’ ambitions.

Politics & Current Events (2025)

Barclays: US Recession Unlikely Post-Trade Truce (reuters.com) Reuters reports Barclays revising forecasts, no longer expecting a U.S. recession due to a China trade truce stabilizing growth. I’d vent that browsing news feels useless—much of it irrelevant.

Trump’s Medicare Push for Lower Drug Prices (npr.org) NPR covers Trump’s action expanding Medicare’s drug price negotiations, building on existing programs amid hikes. On a 1-10 fuckedness scale, we’re at 11—unbelievable.

2025 Housing Market Declines in Florida and Texas (wsj.com) WSJ charts show metro price drops in inventory-heavy Florida/Texas markets, with Tampa in top five declines. Tampa’s WSJ mention prompts thoughts on unfinished books piling up.