February 2025 Linkpost

With astronomers pegging a 2.3% chance of an asteroid smacking Earth in 2032, maybe it’s finally time to book that dream trip—armed with 50 years of timeless travel wisdom, of course!

Philosophy & Human Nature

Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs (lesswrong.com)
I came across this piece while pondering how online communities like Reddit might push ideologies to extremes. It explains how groups lose moderate members over time, leaving the most fervent behind—like water cooling as hot molecules evaporate. This dynamic applies to cults, political echo chambers, or even rationalist circles, where bouncing out the sensible folks concentrates the zealots. A pal mentioned how this mirrors right-wing sites drifting toward extremism, but I see it happening on the left too.

The Treacherous Path to Rationality (lesswrong.com)
A buddy shared this on Twitter, sparking thoughts on why places like Greece lag economically despite their history. The essay dives into why explicit reasoning is tough: people resist it, and even attempts often flop. It warns of pitfalls like overconfidence or misapplication, urging careful navigation. I find it spot-on for understanding cultural barriers to rational decision-making in societies or businesses.

The Avoidant Dharma (intimatemirror.substack.com)
Western Buddhism often gets twisted into a tool for emotional distancing, blending with avoidant attachment styles. Key arguments: practices like non-attachment and mindfulness validate withdrawal, shaped by Protestant and rationalist influences. Implications? It might reinforce isolation rather than foster connection, leading to spiritual bypassing. A colleague noted how this resonates with modern meditation apps turning profound teachings into stress hacks. “The mindfulness industrial complex reduces Buddhist practice to stress management techniques,” as the piece puts it.

Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence (equilibriabook.com)
This explores why modesty feels safe: anxious underconfidence fears failure, while status regulation slaps down those claiming unearned rank. Insights: Emotions drive epistemic humility more than logic, like avoiding ambitious careers to dodge flops. Example: A would-be founder preps endlessly instead of interviewing. I would observe this mirrors why we cling to “outside views” that keep us in line socially.

The Gender Wars are Class Wars (cartoonshateher.com)
Gender debates mask class divides, with groups like radfems and incels clashing over mismatched realities. Arguments: Disagreements stem from class lenses, not just gender—e.g., age gaps or rejection stories trigger battles. Conclusion: Consensus eludes because it’s really about socioeconomic rifts. Someone pointed out how this explains odd alliances, like anti-feminists siding with men.

Academic Research & Science

Does the United States Spend Enough on Public Schools? (papers.ssrn.com)
Using a spatial equilibrium model and 25 years of national house price data (large sample), this paper exploits exogenous shocks to spending and taxes. Key findings: U.S. teacher spending per GDP is low among peers; tax-funded increases raise house prices significantly, indicating inefficiency. Methodology: Causal analysis via shocks and longitudinal data. Implications: Underinvestment hurts education; raising spending could boost property values. “We find that an exogenous tax-funded increase in school spending would significantly raise house prices.”

Astronomers Raise Odds of Asteroid Impact in 2032 to 2.3 Percent—Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Panic (smithsonianmag.com)
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered December 2024, has a 2.3% impact chance in 2032 (97.7% flyby). Size: 130-300 feet; could devastate a city like Tunguska (830 sq miles flattened). Methodology: Telescope observations refine orbit; 2028 flyby aids data. Implications: Local damage possible, but not apocalyptic; DART-like tech could deflect. No panic: Odds likely drop to zero with more data.

Summer Institutes in Computational Social Science Locations (sicss.io)
SICSS hosts intensive summer programs worldwide since 2017, expanding to over 50 sites like Poznań, Bogotá, and Pittsburgh. Structure: Days to weeks, fostering global scholar networks. It boosts collaborative research in computational social science, covering data analysis and modeling, with implications for interdisciplinary academic ties.

The Parents Who Dared to Question Newton’s Educational Equity Experiments (bostonglobe.com)
Parents challenged multilevel classes merging ability levels for equity, but faced racism accusations. Key: Policies hurt academics; teachers rebelled by 2025. Examples: Math whiz held back; petition for input rejected. Conclusions: Ideology over needs; trust rebuild needed. “The move to multilevel classes was ‘ideology superseding student needs.’” Implications: DEI can divide if not balanced.

Technology & Society

What Really Happens Inside a Dating App (blog.luap.info)
Insider reveals algorithms prioritize personalization and retention over matches. Key: Men like 26%, women 4%; 50% men get no likes. Monetization favors payers; shady fakes possible. Implications: Apps entertain more than connect; improve with pro photos. “1% of guys receive 10% of likes.” Behaviors: Women scroll twice as much.

What Fully Automated Firms Will Look Like (dwarkeshpatel.com)
AI firms leverage copying (e.g., million Jeff Deans), distilling specialties, merging knowledge, scaling compute, evolving like organisms. Examples: AI Sundar replaces managers; mega-Sundar simulates markets. Implications: Larger conglomerates, IP moats; society questions work’s meaning. “AI firms vs. human firms likened to prokaryotes vs. eukaryotes.”

China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: A Blueprint for Technological Superiority (fpri.org)
MCF integrates civilian tech (AI, quantum) for PLA superiority by 2049. Methodology: Historical analysis from 1980s, institutionalized under Xi. Implications: U.S. must boost sectors, regulate dual-use; risks economic fallout. “Although China’s MCF is yet to yield new weapons, the United States must take steps today.”

Your Customers Hate MVPs. Make a SLC Instead (longform.asmartbear.com)
MVP is selfish learning; SLC (Simple, Lovable, Complete) prioritizes delight. Differences: SLC is v1.0 simple, not broken v0.1. Examples: Early WhatsApp (status only), Snapchat (tap pics). Implications: Builds loyalty, flexible growth.

How to Stand Out Amongst a Sea of AI Agent Launches (virtualprotocol.notion.site)
Guide for AI startups: Craft stories, not just agents; focus uniqueness. Tips: Build narratives, community; avoid hype. Implications: Differentiation in crowded tech space.

The Chinese Communist Party’s Military-Civil Fusion Policy (2017-2021.state.gov)
CCP’s MCF fuses civilian/military for PLA dominance, stealing IP globally. Implications: Global security threat; undermines collaboration.

Reference & Curiosities

50 Years of Travel Tips (kk.org)
Timeless advice: Pack light (enjoyment inversely to weight); organize around passions (e.g., cheeses over sites). Safety: Trust strangers; use AirTags. Immersion: Crash weddings; hire drivers to visit family. “Organize your travel around passions instead of destinations.”

You Need More Lux (meaningness.com)
For winter blahs/SAD: Use bright lights (10,000+ lux) mimicking daylight. Science: Retinal cells detect blue light for mood/circadian. Specs: Summer sun ~100,000 lux; indoors 100-500. Implications: Boosts energy; recommend North Star box.

Politics & Current Events (2025)

You’ve Blown a Hole in the Family: Inside the Murdochs’ Succession Drama (nytimes.com)
Rupert’s bid to favor Lachlan via trust amendment failed in court. Events: 2023 proposal; 2024 Reno trial. Implications: Siblings retain votes; potential liberal shift or sale post-Rupert.

Citigroup Joins Corporate Retreat from Diversity Initiatives (reuters.com)
Citigroup drops diverse slates, goals amid Trump-era DEI rollback. Trends: Goldman, JPMorgan follow. Implications: Changing climate erodes corporate equity efforts.

Trump Wants to Cut the Federal Workforce. Who They Are and What That Means (npr.org)
2.4M workers; 80% outside D.C. Implications: 10% cuts hit services like SSA, VA; historical buyouts caused backlogs, expertise loss.

Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies (whitehouse.gov)
Order subjects independent agencies to OIRA review, OMB standards. Sections: Policy unification; performance reports. Implications: Boosts Presidential control, potential autonomy loss.