September 2024 Linkpost

In Megalopolis, a live actor chats with Adam Driver on screen—because nothing says ‘cinematic innovation’ like turning the audience into unpaid extras.

Philosophy & Human Nature

Decoupling vs Contextualising Norms (lesswrong.com)
This post explores the tension between decoupling (analyzing statements in isolation) and contextualizing (considering broader implications), noting how these norms lead to misunderstandings. I would observe that this framework explains a lot of modern conflicts, where one side fences off threats while the other sees it as lacking empathy—much like debates in our group chats that spiral from facts into feelings.

MIRI’s Death with Dignity Strategy (lesswrong.com)
Eliezer Yudkowsky’s announcement that MIRI is shifting from AI alignment research to advocating for a global pause on AI development, framed as accepting defeat gracefully. I would note the humor in this pivot, reminding me of those moments when we realize a debate’s gone too far and it’s time to bow out—though in this case, it’s about humanity’s survival.

Calvinism as Recovered High-Trust Agency (benjaminrosshoffman.com)
An exploration of Calvinism as a mechanism for rebuilding trust and agency in low-trust environments through predestination and community norms. I would highlight how this resonates with our discussions on social constructs, like how placebo effects or societal pressures shape behavior without us noticing.

Levels of Republicanism (benjaminrosshoffman.com)
A breakdown of republicanism from basic civic participation to advanced forms like profitable partial exit from perverse regimes. I would comment that this tiers system feels like a strategy guide for navigating flawed systems, akin to our talks on optimizing life hacks in a broken world.

The Awakening by Kate Chopin (en.wikipedia.org)
Kate Chopin’s novel about a woman’s self-discovery and societal rebellion in 19th-century Louisiana. My pal shared this in a chat about translating mom-speak, noting the demure dress—it’s a classic on awakening to personal desires amid constraints, which ties into our fertility norm debates.

Freyja: Norse Goddess of Love and War (en.wikipedia.org)
The Norse goddess associated with love, fertility, war, and magic. A buddy dropped this during a video call setup, perhaps linking to themes of power and influence—reminds me how ancient myths mirror modern discussions on human nature’s dualities.

Why Should I Specifically Care? (open.substack.com)
A rewritten note on moral obligations, using scenarios like ignoring hungry children to question why we should care about distant issues. I shared this amid talks on fertility and ethics, observing how it stacks references to probe personal vs. global responsibilities.

Academic Research & Science

Placebo Interventions for All Clinical Conditions (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
This Cochrane review analyzed 202 trials across 60 conditions, finding no important clinical effects from placebos overall, but possible influences on patient-reported outcomes like pain (SMD -0.28, 95% CI -0.36 to -0.19) and nausea. Methodology involved searching multiple databases (up to 2008) and including randomized trials with no-treatment controls; sample sizes were 6,041 for binary outcomes and 10,525 for continuous. Conclusions note variations explained by trial design, implying limited clinical use but value in understanding bias. I would note this backs my earlier claim that placebos are overhyped, much like our group’s skepticism on socially constructed ailments.

Placebo and Nocebo Effects in Pharmacological Interventions (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
This umbrella review synthesizes evidence on placebo and nocebo effects in drug trials, but details are limited as the content focuses on unrelated aspects; key takeaway is methodological flaws in older studies. A colleague shared this critiquing outdated views, aligning with our chats on how comfort breeds weakness in society.

Is the Placebo Powerless? Update with 52 New Trials (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
Updating a systematic review with 156 trials and 11,737 patients, it found no large placebo effects, with small possible impacts on pain (SMD -0.28) undistinguished from bias. Methodology used meta-analysis on binary (RR 0.95) and continuous outcomes (SMD -0.24); low bias in only 8% of trials. Implications caution against overinterpreting placebo power. I posted this as evidence against placebo myths, tying into our SAD discussions as socially constructed.

Mass Media and Fertility Change (ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
This chapter reviews associations between media access and fertility decline, with regressions showing TVs per 1,000 explaining 74% of variance across 144 countries. Methodology includes cross-sectional DHS surveys (samples 2,200–5,300 women) and interventions like Guatemala’s radio campaign tripling vasectomy demand. Implications suggest media legitimizes smaller families. Someone shared this pre-social media era insight, noting it amplifies our Goonpocalypse theories on addictive media’s fertility impact.

Neanderthal DNA and Autism Susceptibility (nature.com)
Analyzing WES from SPARK and GTEx datasets (e.g., 2004 white non-Hispanic autistics), it found rare Neanderthal SNPs enriched in autism (OR up to 7.624), with implications for brain development. Methodology used NeanderScores and functional enrichment for terms like “neurogenesis.” I shared this linking autism to Neanderthal traits, joking science fiction is real.

Autocracy, Democracy, and Economic Growth (arxiv.org)
Using panel regressions on country-year data (e.g., N=6312), it shows democracy’s growth effects vanish when controlling for Western favors like sanctions avoidance. Methodology includes 2SLS with democratization waves as instruments. Implications affirm favoring democracies economically works. Unrelated to convos, but I noted it supports U.S. policies aiding gay-friendly nations.

Government-Subsidized Supermarket in Food Deserts (cambridge.org)
Difference-in-differences with 2172 surveys showed minimal dietary improvements post-supermarket opening; salty snacks availability dropped 10% initially but unsustained. Sample: 363 dietary recalls. Implications: Access alone insufficient for health changes. I linked this showing food deserts interventions flop.

Car Seats as Contraception (papers.ssrn.com)
Difference-in-differences on census data estimates car seat laws reduce third births by 0.73 percentage points, preventing 57 fatalities but 145,000 fewer births since 1980. Implications: Safety regs unintendedly curb fertility. A friend shared noting effects on higher-income households.

Neoadjuvant Oncolytic Virotherapy for Breast Cancer (mdpi.com)
Single case: Self-administered viruses shrunk tumor from 2.47 to 0.91 cm³, enabling surgery; lymphocytic infiltration rose to 45%. Implications: OVT for downstaging tumors. I questioned this wild self-experiment.

Technology & Society

Optimizing Crop Planting with Mixed Integer Linear Programming (lesswrong.com)
A LessWrong post on using PuLP for crop optimization. I shared this amid cult meetup jokes, noting its practical math ties to our efficiency chats.

Growing Software Developers in the Provinces (simonsarris.com)
Advocates hiring juniors from non-elite areas for talent depth. I posted this on human biodiversity, observing it’s like strategy decks in our thinking ladder talks.

Path to Human-Capable Robots (medium.com)
Outlines challenges like control logic, suggesting stepping-stones with wheels. Implications: Phased deployment key. A colleague shared these great pieces.

Problems with Humanoid Robots (medium.com)
Critiques AI limits, costs; favors wheels for stability. Implications: Humanoids wrong for most tasks.

Robotics Foundation Models Business (medium.com)
Discusses RFM hype, data needs; $1B+ invested. Implications: Vertical integration for revenue.

AI Threat Debate (pbs.org)
Experts debate AI risks. I shared amid poll talks, noting rapid advances echo our extinction fears.

Chai-1: Molecular Structure Prediction Model (chaidiscovery.com)
Multi-modal model excels in drug discovery (77% PoseBusters success). Implications: Accelerates biochemistry. I posted this on bio-AI.

NFC Movie Library for Kids (simplyexplained.com)
DIY NFC tags for kid-friendly media access. I shared for family tech, tying to our founder mode bros.

AI Fake Bands Scam (futurism.com)
Man arrested for AI-generated fake bands racking streams. My brother called it “Artificial Aaron,” highlighting AI’s dark side.

Big Tech’s Role in Contactless Payments (consumerfinance.gov)
CFPB spotlights Big Tech’s payments dominance, $200B Apple Pay spend. A pal shared amid tap debates.

Mastercard Contactless Payments Survey (cnbc.com)
51% Americans use contactless, but most stick to cards. Implications: Phone taps lag.

Gwern on Not Turning Sites into Books (gwern.net)
Explains why dynamic sites harm when bookified. I shared on writing, noting it harms flow.

Economics & Development

WFH Productivity and Selection (newyorkfed.org)
Pre-COVID, remote workers 12% less productive; post-shift, 4% treatment drop, 8% selection gap. Implications: Remote attracts lower performers. I shared TL;DR on unproductivity.

US Declining Birth Rate 2023 (time.com)
Births fell 2% to 3.59M, lowest since 1979; below replacement since 2007. Implications: Immigration needed. A friend shared noting it’s a tenth of the problem.

NanoGraf $60M DOE Award for Silicon Anode Factory (globenewswire.com)
$60M for Flint factory producing 2,500 tons/year, powering 1.5M EVs; 200 construction, 150 permanent jobs. Implications: Onshores supply chain. Someone celebrated this meaningful career milestone.

America and Europe Equally Poor (palladiummag.com)
Adjusting for PPP, hours, Europe matches US wealth; US has inequality, Europe better quality. Implications: Shared declines ahead. I shared on cross-continent comparisons.

Why Is Israel Fertile? (nonzionism.com)
TFR ~3 due to “socially recursive fertility” from ultra-orthodox influence. Implications: Mimetic norms key. I rewrote and shared on trickle-down natalism.

Aristocratic Women and Christianity’s Rise (writingruxandrabio.com)
Salzman’s data on 414 aristocrats shows women lacked agency to convert; consensus overstated. Implications: Reexamine historical agency. I shared TL;DR on just-so stories.

Reference & Curiosities

Visa Temples in India (indianeagle.com)
Temples where devotees pray for visa success, some near consulates. My friend asked if they assist physically—mostly prayer, but fascinating cultural blend.

Gifted Kids Status Report (mastermanhsa.org)
Advocates separating gifted students from the bottom 80% for better learning. I shared TL;DR on freeing from cloying mindlessness.

Triple Parentheses Echo Symbol (en.wikipedia.org)
Antisemitic symbol highlighting Jewish names. My brother shared amid video chats, noting its online origins.

Walk Score for Apartments (walkscore.com)
Tool for commute-based housing search. I suggested for neighborhood filters during house hunts.

Politics & Current Events (2024)

Theaters Handling Megalopolis Live Scene (indiewire.com)
Coppola’s film has a live Q&A scene; theaters prep non-interactive versions. A pal shared amid Cannes buzz—I’d guess real theaters adapt, but slop flops anyway.

Republicans and DC Steakhouses (washingtonian.com)
History of GOP favoritism for DC spots like Capital Grille. I shared amid restaurant tours—Connor’s down, even if it’s chain steak.

Harris-Trump Pennsylvania Poll (nytimes.com)
Poll shows voter shifts; Muslims defect over Biden’s policies. Someone shared with 🎃—I’d note bases hating each other, like our group dynamics.

Ballston Shooting Suspects (arlnow.com)
Police seek four after man shot in Ballston. A buddy shared—crazy, makes me want Batman mode.