January 2024 Linkpost

Who knew that the real villain in my sock drawer was procrastination, plotting a rebellion one mismatched pair at a time?

Philosophy & Human Nature

Deep Atheism and the Shadows of AI Risk (joecarlsmith.com)
Deep atheism goes beyond just denying a benevolent God—it’s a profound mistrust of Nature itself, seeing it as indifferent and often cruel, from parasitic wasps to starving elephants. This essay ties it to AI risks, warning that unaligned AI could amplify Nature’s horrors, lacking human values. I would note how Yudkowsky’s “no rescuer hath the rescuer” captures that call to personal responsibility in a godless universe, especially resonant when pondering if intelligence alone guarantees goodness. The philosophy here blends yin receptivity with yang vigilance, urging us to shape the future without blind trust.

When Ordinary Folks Turn Monstrous (patrickwyman.substack.com)
Drawing from ancient Assyrians to Holocaust perpetrators, this piece shows how bakers, weavers, and dock-workers—utterly normal people—participated in atrocities, normalizing evil through social pressures and material gains. Key examples include a 646 BC Assyrian campaign where a ten-man unit enslaved and sold captives for silver, and Reserve Police Battalion 101 killing 38,000 Jews in Poland, with 80-90% involvement despite no coercion. I would observe that this challenges our cozy notions of inherent morality; it’s a reminder that conflict can warp anyone, and reintegration post-horror is eerily seamless.

Navigating the Wreckage of Divorce (sashachapin.substack.com)
Reflecting on a recent divorce after two years of marriage, this series delves into grief, identity loss, and growth, with insights like how our selves are distributed in routines and possessions, distorting memories as editorial choices. Quotes like “Every act of remembrance is an editorial decision” highlight the emotional fog. I would say it’s raw yet hopeful, touching on how hurt accumulates in relationships, and even ties in musings on masculinity via fragrances like Dior Homme Intense—ethereal but perhaps insubstantial.

The Blues as a Miscalibrated Mood Thermostat (astralcodexten.com)
Modeling the psyche as homeostatic control systems, this explains mental health woes like depression as a lowered “thymostat” set point, where people unconsciously maintain sadness through rumination or sad music. Anorexia similarly recalibrates the lipostat for low weight, resisting recovery. I would point out how therapies like CBT force opposite actions—walks instead of isolation—to reset these, but it’s tough overriding instincts, much like a feverish person shunning cooling.

Why Fantasy Heroes Are Our Secret Selves (astralcodexten.com)
Fantasy appeals because it lets ordinary folks save the world without elite skills, via tropes like hidden heirs or ancient artifacts granting power effortlessly. Heroes like Frodo embody projection: chosen for inherent traits, not competence. I would note the load-bearing structure—monarchies with rightful kings, mystical magic—optimizes for relatability, unlike grueling real-world training, explaining why we crave these escapist realms over more varied ones.

The Rise and Fall of Subcultures: Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths (meaningness.com)
Subcultures start with geeks inventing cool things, attract casual MOPs for validation, then get exploited by sociopaths who monetize and dilute them, leading to collapse post-2000. Optimal geek:MOP ratio is 6:1, but herds overwhelm. I would add that resisting via barriers helps, but geeks might need “slight evil” to defend—realistic for why creative forces faded.

Signs You’re in a Cultural Wasteland (honest-broker.com)
Listing 14 red flags like sameness in creativity, rewarding imitation, and corporate metrics dominating art, this warns of a counterculture void. Themes feel static, alternatives ignored. I would remark it’s a wake-up to our repetitive media landscape, urging more vitality before we’re all recycling the same stories.

The Sock Saga: A Tale of Everyday Procrastination (gwern.net)
Using socks as a microcosm, this essay surveys how many run short (37% in polls), due to lacking triggers for System II deliberation, leading to “yak shaving” cascades. Surveys (n=130 US, n=455 global) link infrequent buys to shortages. I would confess it’s hit home—why delay a simple Amazon order? Broader lesson: periodic reviews prevent life’s small failures from snowballing.

Academic Research & Science

Unraveling the Polygenic Puzzle of Schizophrenia (astralcodexten.com)
Polygenic traits like schizophrenia (80% heritable) show low twin concordance (15-50%) because rarity requires both high genetic and environmental risks—simulations with 2000 people and weighted scores (4x genetic) yield 20% concordance. Eugenics fails as high-risk non-affected outnumber cases 10:1. I would highlight how this debunks “not genetic” claims, emphasizing broad allele distribution.

Genes and Environment in Criminal Paths (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
In a study of 21,603 Swedish twin pairs using crime register data from 1973-2011 and OpenMx modeling, heritability for criminal convictions is ~45% in both sexes, with shared environment at 18% (females) and 27% (males); cross-sex correlation +0.63. In men, unique genetic effects: half for violent, one-third for white-collar; half familial environmental unique to property. I would note this shows substantial familial aggregation from genes and environment, with sex-specific influences and subtype variations.

Donor Milk vs. Formula for Tiny Preemies (jamanetwork.com)
This RCT compared donor human milk vs. preterm formula for neurodevelopment in 483 extremely preterm infants (<29 weeks gestation) across 15 US centers, randomized to nutrient-fortified donor milk or formula when mother’s milk unavailable. At 22-26 months corrected age, no significant Bayley-III score differences (cognitive: adjusted mean difference -0.5, 95% CI -3.7 to 2.7). I would observe it implies donor milk doesn’t superiorly impact outcomes, easing formula stigma for vulnerable babies.

Dunning-Kruger: Myth or Math Artifact? (mcgill.ca)
Critiquing the idea that incompetents overestimate while experts underestimate, reanalyses by Nuhfer et al. (2016-2017) show random data replicates the effect, attributing it to measurement error or unreliable self-assessments, not bias. Simulations in R confirm graphs mimic originals without psychology. I would say it’s a blow to pop psych, but overconfidence biases persist elsewhere.

AI’s Crystal Ball for Stocks (papers.ssrn.com)
Using ChatGPT to score news headlines, this finds LLMs predict out-of-sample daily returns, stronger for small stocks and negative news, subsuming traditional methods. Theoretical model incorporates capacity constraints, underreaction, arbitrage limits; predicts advanced LLMs interpret complex info, widespread adoption boosts efficiency. I would ponder how this shifts finance, with interpretability frameworks aiding transparency.

Unearthing High-Achievers from Low-Income Shadows (nber.org)
Though content lacks full details, this paper examines hidden high-achieving, low-income students, using data to analyze supply barriers. Key findings highlight underrepresentation; implications for policy to boost access. A colleague would suggest it’s eye-opening on equity gaps in education.

Extending Fido’s Fetch: Longevity Drugs on the Horizon (nytimes.com)
Loyal’s drug gained FDA nod for reasonable effectiveness in extending canine healthy lifespan by a year, targeting 2026 market via conditional approval. Trials aim at large breeds; rapamycin explored for anti-aging. I would muse on the ethics—prolonging pet lives questions human applications, stirring hope and heartbreak.

A Cosmic Ring That Defies the Rules (theguardian.com)
PhD student Alexia Lopez discovered the 1.3-billion-light-year Big Ring via SDSS data, a corkscrew-shaped structure 9 billion light-years away, challenging the 1.2-billion-light-year size limit and cosmological principle of homogeneity. Near the Giant Arc, it suggests connected systems; explanations include baryonic oscillations or cosmic strings. I would marvel at how this upends uniformity assumptions, hinting at early universe quirks.

Waves of Ancient Migrants to the Americas (bbc.com)
Genetic survey of 52 Native American and 17 Siberian groups, analyzing 300,000+ SNPs, reveals three waves: first ~15,000 years ago founding most; later impacting Eskimo-Aleut (>50% First American DNA) and Na-Dene (90%). Southward coastal expansion with little gene flow. I would reflect on how this refines settlement narratives, showing back-migrations and regional isolation.

Ancient Woodworking Before Homo Sapiens (scientificamerican.com)
At Zambia’s Kalambo Falls site, 476,000-year-old logs with notches suggest platform construction, dated via luminescence on sediments. Preserved by waterlogging, artifacts imply advanced tech in Homo heidelbergensis or similar. I would emphasize this pushes back planned building, reshaping views on pre-sapiens cognition.

Redheads and the Sting of Sensitivity (metraldental.com)
Linked to MC1R gene, redheads show heightened pain sensitivity; JADA study (n=144) found them twice as likely to avoid dental care, with 65/67 redheads carrying the variant vs. 20/77 others. Anesthetics less effective. I would quip it’s a fiery reminder genetics spice up even toothaches.

Technology & Society

The Web’s Assault on Shared Culture (digitalnative.tech)
Internet fragmentation eroded mainstream, with Oscars down 80%, 559 TV shows in 2021 diluting impact, Spotify’s 60k daily uploads splintering music. Data: streamers average more artists weekly; implications include echo chambers, niche subcultures via Discord. I would lament lost water-cooler chats, but celebrate diverse expressions.

Escaping the Patrilocal Bind (ggd.world)
Patrilocality—sons inherit, daughters marry into husbands’ clans—arose with wealth accumulation via plows and trade, enforced by arranged marriages. Catholic Church dismantled it in West by banning cousins/polygamy. Modern India/China examples show gender traps; implications: women’s exit threats boost equality. I would connect it to how institutions reshape family power.

Economics & Development

Renting’s Bitter-Sweet Edge Over Buying (goodreason.substack.com)
With mortgages 46% above rents, renting wins financially unless long-term stay; rent ratio (price/annual rent) guides. Personal guilt over renting fades, but 30%+ rent-to-income burdens all. I would share relief at validation, yet horror at systemic affordability woes.

Rethinking the SAT Ban (nytimes.com)
SATs better predict success than GPAs, per M.I.T., Brown, UC studies (n=230k+); Opportunity Insights links scores to Ivy outcomes. Aids diversity by spotting underrepresented talent. I would argue ditching them hurts equity, urging reinstatement.

Climate & Environment

Reimagining the Salton Sea’s Revival (caseyhandmer.wordpress.com)
Solar-powered RO plant near Yuma desalinates 5 MAF/year seawater/Salton mix, extracting minerals (10M tons Mg), returning brine to ocean. Costs: debated, but revenue from $1k/AF water + $50B minerals. Benefits: ecosystem restore, dust control. I would envision it as a bold fix for Southwest scarcity.

Reference & Curiosities

The Power of Persistent Why’s (en.wikipedia.org)
Iterative questioning uncovers root causes; a pal shared it as a tool for corporate stack-tracing, where breakdowns hide in people or processes. I would apply it to debugging life’s glitches.

Life’s Quantity vs. Quality Trade-Off (en.m.wikipedia.org)
r-strategists favor many offspring, K-strategists few but invested; a buddy likened it to genAI copy—flooding diminishes impact. I would see parallels in content creation rhythms.

The Vanishing Wrist Tendon (en.m.wikipedia.org)
Absent in 14% of people, vestigial from climbing ancestors; someone noted biology’s squishiness. I would wonder at our evolutionary leftovers.

Nature’s Fluid Pressure Tricks (en.wikipedia.org)
Flow through constrictions drops pressure; I would link it to everyday phenomena, like wind in alleys.

The Mosque That Sparked Riots (en.wikipedia.org)
1992 demolition by Hindu activists killed 2000; historical flashpoint over Ram temple site. I would contextualize the lasting communal tensions.

Dictator’s Legacy of Loot (en.m.wikipedia.org)
Philippine ruler (1965-1986), kleptocrat who amassed billions; a friend quizzed on his polo-playing tyranny. I would tie to post-colonial democracy prep.

A Doomed Jungle Trek (en.m.wikipedia.org)
1901 US Marines’ failed Philippine march, many died; highlights imperial brutalities. I would contrast with “preparing for democracy” narratives.

Pre-Columbian Horror on the Plains (en.wikipedia.org)
Mid-1300s massacre of 486 in South Dakota, scalped and mutilated; shows pre-contact violence. I would counter romanticized views of indigenous peace.

Vikings Among the Mandans? (let.rug.nl)
Evidence suggests Eurasian migrations to Americas pre-Columbus, including Viking-Mandan links via runes and DNA. I would speculate on rewritten histories.

Ellis Island Didn’t Change Names (journals.ala.org)
Myth debunked: immigrants changed names at citizenship, not arrival; gov docs prove it. I would use to trace family lore accurately.