January 2023 Linkpost
In a world screaming for more high-IQ brains, it’s comforting to know tech visionaries are still dreaming big – even if the rest of us are just trying to keep up with zoning drama.
Philosophy & Human Nature
Doxastic Voluntarism (iep.utm.edu)
This entry explores the philosophical debate on whether we have voluntary control over our beliefs, contrasting direct and indirect voluntarism with involuntarism. I would note that this framework ties into how we form opinions on everything from tech ethics to social norms, reminding me of those endless debates where evidence clashes with what we want to believe.
You Are a Random Sample of Short Experience-Generating Strings (putanumonit.com)
Jacob Cannell’s UDASSA theory posits that our experiences arise from short computational strings in an infinite multiverse, blending anthropic reasoning with simulation arguments. I would highlight how this flips traditional views on consciousness, suggesting we’re more likely in simple simulations – a mind-bender that connects to AI ethics and why we might undervalue rare events.
Academic Research & Science
Bird Flu Outbreak in Mink Sparks Concern About Spread in People (nature.com)
A variant of H5N1 influenza that can spread between mammals could pose an immediate threat to public health, based on an outbreak in mink. A pal mentioned this chilling development, which underscores ongoing risks from zoonotic diseases.
Technology & Society
The New Tech Worldview (economist.com)
Silicon Valley may be grounding itself amid economic shifts, but tech thinkers like OpenAI’s Sam Altman remain boldly optimistic about AI’s rapid ascent, valued at nearly $20 billion. The article delves into how AI could transform society as a force for good, with Altman’s casual tech-speak – like asking if discussions “update your priors” – illustrating the blend of innovation and ambition. A colleague shared this, sparking thoughts on how these visions endure despite market turbulence.
The Extreme Shortage of High-IQ Workers (marginalrevolution.com)
Semiconductor manufacturing demands exceptionally high-IQ talent, yet the U.S. has only about 3.7 million workers with IQs over 130 – insufficient for running advanced industries alongside research and business needs. The post argues for global talent recruitment or smarter tools to bridge the gap, noting that just 164,000 workers hit the 1-in-1,000 IQ threshold. I would observe that this shortage explains why chips are made in places like Taiwan, and it’s a wake-up call for policies that boost intellectual capital without assuming everyone wants these roles.
Disinformation for Hire: A Shadow Industry Booming Quietly (nytimes.com)
Private firms are fueling a disinformation industry, hiring influencers to spread falsehoods like anti-vaccine narratives, as seen with the Fazze agency’s failed Pfizer smear campaign that reached hundreds of thousands via scripted videos in multiple countries. Methods include providing deniability to clients while meddling in elections and sowing discord, blending marketing with geopolitical tactics. I would point out that this back-alley meddling amplifies an era of unreality, with real-world fallout for trust in institutions.
Economics & Development
Bay Area Cities to Lose All Housing Zoning Powers in Two Days (darrellowens.substack.com)
An old law, the Housing Accountability Act’s “builder’s remedy,” strips zoning powers from non-compliant cities, allowing unlimited-height developments if 20% are low-income affordable – as Santa Monica saw 4,797 new homes proposed in a week, meeting 50% of targets. Rooted in 1970s downzoning and updated RHNA mandates, this could reshape urban landscapes by forcing equitable housing in affluent areas. A buddy flagged this shift, which feels like a game-changer for tackling shortages without endless subsidies.
More Babies: Addressing Declining Fertility (profgalloway.com)
Humanity’s real threat is population decline, not overgrowth, with global peaks projected for 2064 and fertility rates at 1.8 in the U.S. – below replacement – leading to fewer innovators and strained economies as seniors consume 40% of taxes. Solutions include immigration (half of U.S. unicorns founded by immigrants), expanded child tax credits (lifting 3 million kids from poverty in 2021), and “Operation Fertility” for stable families via better schools and healthcare. I would add that reversing wealth transfers from young to old, like taxing capital gains higher, could fuel this, drawing from my own late fatherhood experiences.
Reference & Curiosities
Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions Theory (en.wikipedia.org)
Geert Hofstede’s framework analyzes how societal culture affects values, with dimensions like individualism vs. collectivism and uncertainty avoidance. I would suggest this as a lens for understanding cross-cultural dynamics, like why moving abroad might boost happiness through mismatched cultural fits.
Politics & Current Events (2023)
Colonialism Did Not Cause the Indian Famines (historyreclaimed.co.uk)
Geography, not British policies, drove Deccan famines like those in 1876-77 (30% rainfall deficit), with unreliable precolonial data inflating colonial blame. Death rates dropped from 42-50 per thousand (1911-21) to 25 (1941-51) thanks to railways and relief codes, countering narratives of imperial drainage. I would emphasize how this debunks biased claims, showing infrastructure as a life-saver amid natural shocks.