September 2022 Linkpost

If only we could arbitrage trust as easily as Citi did that billion-dollar oopsie.

Philosophy & Human Nature

Hero Licensing (lesswrong.com) This essay explores how society demands “licenses” for ambition, often stifling innovation by requiring prior status or credentials before allowing big ideas to take off. I would note that this mirrors why so many hate on visionaries like Musk—it’s not just the hype, but the audacity to act without permission. Ties into crab bucket mentality, where pulling others down feels safer than climbing up.

The Thinking Ladder (waitbutwhy.com) Tim Urban breaks down levels of thinking, from knee-jerk reactions to deep meta-cognition. I would highlight how this framework echoes strategy decks at work, building arguments layer by layer. A colleague once quipped it’s like upgrading from toddler tantrums to chess master moves—useful for navigating complex debates without getting stuck in echo chambers.

Frame Control (lesswrong.com) A deep dive into subtle manipulation through framing reality, often in abusive dynamics but applicable broadly. When my pal shared this, they noted how it sneaks into everyday conversations, like bosses rewriting narratives. Key takeaway: spot when someone’s frame invalidates your experience, and push back to reclaim agency.

Update Yourself Incrementally (lesswrong.com) Scott Alexander argues for gradual belief updates over dramatic shifts, using Bayesian reasoning to avoid whiplash. I would observe it’s like debugging code—one small fix at a time prevents crashes. A buddy mentioned it helped them ditch all-or-nothing thinking in politics, making discussions less heated.

Nash Equilibria and Schelling Points (lesswrong.com) Explains coordination games where unspoken focal points emerge, like meeting at Grand Central’s clock. I would connect this to social norms, where everyone converges without explicit rules. Someone wisecracked it’s why traffic flows—until it doesn’t, revealing fragile equilibria.

Schelling Fences on Slippery Slopes (lesswrong.com) Extends Schelling points to boundaries that prevent gradual erosion of standards. A pal shared how it applies to ethics, like zero-tolerance policies halting small cheats from snowballing. Memorable for illustrating why “just this once” often leads to avalanches.

Speaking Truth to Power Is a Schelling Point (lesswrong.com) Posits honesty as a natural coordination tool against authority. I would note it’s risky but rallies allies. In one chat, a colleague laughed about it being the whistleblower’s rallying cry—useful for understanding why leaks happen in clusters.

The Self-Unfooling Problem (lesswrong.com) Discusses overcoming self-deception, blending rationality with psychology. My friend highlighted how biases like confirmation sneak in, but techniques like double-cruxing help. Why memorable: it turns introspection into a solvable puzzle, not endless navel-gazing.

Academic Research & Science

Cosmic Airburst Destroyed Ancient City (nature.com) This paper analyzes evidence from ~1650 BCE at Tall el-Hammam, Jordan Valley, suggesting a cosmic airburst akin to Tunguska. Methodology involved excavating and testing materials from the site, including melted pottery (requiring >2000°C heat), shocked quartz, and diamonoids in sediment. Sample sizes: over 100 artifacts and sediment layers from multiple strata. Key findings: a 1.5-meter debris layer with human bones showing extreme disarticulation and thermal damage; implications include potential inspiration for biblical Sodom story, with ~8000-12,000 deaths. Conclusions: event caused immediate destruction and long-term salinization, delaying repopulation for centuries.

Cancer Risk Factors Worldwide (nature.com) Summarizes a study estimating 44.5% of global cancer deaths (4.45 million in 2020) attributable to modifiable risks like smoking (2.88 million deaths), alcohol (741,300), and high BMI (450,000). Methodology: global modeling using GLOBOCAN 2020 data, population attributable fractions from meta-analyses. Sample sizes: draws from large-scale epidemiological reviews (e.g., thousands in cohort studies). Implications: prevention via policy (e.g., tobacco control) could avert millions; highest burdens in high-income countries for behavioral risks. Conclusions: emphasizes public health interventions over genetic focus.

Intelligence and Socioeconomic Attitudes (sciencedirect.com) Study finds higher intelligence predicts economic extremism (β=0.04 to 0.12 across models). Methodology: secondary analysis of General Social Survey (1972-2016), using WORDSUM for IQ proxy, regression on 15 economic attitudes. Sample size: 27,572 U.S. adults. Findings: smarter individuals more likely to endorse far-left (e.g., government responsibility) or far-right (e.g., anti-welfare) views, not centrism. Implications: explains why intellectuals polarize; challenges low-IQ conservatism trope. Conclusions: cognitive ability drives deviation from mainstream, potentially fueling ideological divides.

Cognitive Ability and Economic Extremism (sciencedirect.com) Analysis shows cognitive ability links to conservative economic views (β up to 0.12), challenging low-IQ conservatism myths. Methodology: meta-analysis of 41 studies plus new data from 8 countries. Sample sizes: total ~50,000 across datasets. Findings: higher IQ correlates with fiscal conservatism (e.g., lower taxes), but mixed on social issues. Implications: smarter people may favor markets for efficiency; informs policy debates. Conclusions: reverses prior narratives, suggesting ability predicts principled stances over dogma.

Midlife Crisis in Rich Nations (nber.org) Documents U-shaped life satisfaction dip in midlife across rich nations, despite peak earnings. Methodology: longitudinal surveys (e.g., BHPS, SOEP), fixed-effects models controlling for cohorts. Sample sizes: up to 1.3 million observations from 500,000+ individuals. Findings: despair peaks ~age 45-50, with suicide rates 2-3x higher; unrelated to income dips. Implications: cultural/institutional factors exacerbate; policy could target mental health. Conclusions: midlife as vulnerability period, not mere aging.

Technology & Society

Ethereum as a Dark Forest (paradigm.xyz) Describes blockchain as adversarial, where transactions invite exploits like front-running. I would caution that “trustlessness” breeds paranoia, as seen in a rescued $50k trade via mempool bots. A colleague joked it’s like space opera—genocide as default. Memorable for revealing crypto’s cutthroat underbelly.

Run Stable Diffusion on M1 Mac (replicate.com) Guides optimizing AI image generation for Apple silicon, slashing GPU demands. Practical for hobbyists; I would experiment with prompts for art, noting ethical AI debates. Why useful: democratizes creation, but sparks IP concerns.

Whisper AI Speech Recognition (openai.com) OpenAI’s model nears human accuracy on multilingual speech, trained on 680,000 hours. I would apply to podcasts for transcripts. A pal noted accessibility boosts, like real-time captions. Timeless for advancing human-computer interaction.

Adept’s Action Transformer (adept.ai) Introduces AI that acts in digital spaces, like booking flights from prompts. Early demo; implications for automation. I would watch for job shifts, as it chains tasks intelligently.

AI Critics and Media Hype (garymarcus.substack.com) Critiques overhyped AI claims, like self-driving timelines. Deep dive: Tesla’s “full self-driving” promises vs. reality (e.g., 100+ crashes). Methodology: case studies of media failures. Implications: temper expectations to avoid bubbles. Conclusions: progress real, but incremental—not revolutionary yet.

Modern Tech’s Frustrations (shkspr.mobi) Rants on buggy gadgets post-30s, invoking Adams’ tech quote. I would echo printer woes; a buddy laughed at “spooky” manager pings. Useful for appreciating simplicity amid complexity.

Economics & Development

The End of Poverty (thingofthings.substack.com) Reviews Sachs’ aid blueprint, critiquing overoptimism. Key: RCTs show mixed results (e.g., bed nets work, but holistic packages flop). Implications: targeted interventions over grand plans. I would note skepticism grew from failed predictions.

Alchemy of Deposits (bam.kalzumeus.com) Explains how banks create money via fractional reserves, blending public/private roles. I would highlight regulatory magic turning risks into liquidity. A colleague quipped it’s fragile alchemy—2008 proved it.

Why Bank Branches Exist (bam.kalzumeus.com) Ethnography reveals branches as neighborhood anchors, not just ATMs. Findings: customers value local identity. Implications: digital shift overlooks social ties. Memorable for humanizing finance.

Blockchains and Dollarization (noahpinion.substack.com) Proposes crypto for evading capital controls in autocracies. I would see potential in Cold War 2 scenarios, but risks volatility. Why relevant: could reshape global finance amid tensions.

Credit Card Competition Act (thepointsguy.com) Details bill mandating multiple networks, potentially slashing rewards. Implications: lower merchant fees but consumer perks cut. A pal noted it’s antitrust pushback on Visa/Mastercard duopoly.

Income-Driven Repayment as Grants (brookings.edu) Critiques Biden’s IDR as forgiving most loans (e.g., 80% undergrads repay nothing). Implications: regressive subsidies inflating tuition. Conclusions: better target aid to needy.

Crypto in Argentina’s Black Market (freethink.com) Stablecoins facilitate informal dollar trades amid inflation. I would observe it’s pragmatic arbitrage, not ideological. Timeless for showing tech filling institutional gaps.

Climate & Environment

Modifiable Cancer Risks (nature.com) As above, but environment tie: pollution as factor (e.g., 10% cancers). Implications: cleaner policies cut risks.

Patagonia Donates to Climate (npr.org) Founder gifts company to trust fighting climate. I would suggest investing in batteries over apparel. Why memorable: radical corporate philanthropy model.

Reference & Curiosities

Science Knowledge Quiz (pewresearch.org) Tests basics; results show gaps (e.g., 32% don’t know fossil fuels). Useful for humility—primes “people aren’t that smart.”

Population vs. Sample (scribbr.com) Clarifies stats terms. I would use for research literacy; a buddy applied to surveys.

Mohism Overview (en.wikipedia.org) Ancient Chinese philosophy of impartial care, logic. Timeless ethics alternative to Confucianism.

Man of the Hole (en.wikipedia.org) Last of his tribe’s story. Evokes isolation themes; implications for indigenous rights.

Politics & Current Events (2022)

Child Poverty Decline (nytimes.com) Safety net halved child poverty (1993-2019). A friend cheered it as mood booster amid gloom.

Biden’s China Tech Order (nytimes.com) Curbs investments in Chinese tech. Based move for security; heightens tensions.

Texas Social Media Law (reuters.com) Upholds ban on viewpoint censorship. My pal called it “based,” libertarians reeling.

UK Anti-Royal Arrests (npr.org) Protests lead to arrests; highlights free speech tensions post-Queen.

Citi’s Billion-Dollar Mistake (bloomberg.com) Court rules error non-recoverable; contrasts with crypto’s finality. Noah notes crypto arbitrages trust.

School Knowledge Debate (nytimes.com) Caplan doubts schools teach lasting knowledge. I would tie to low science literacy polls.

Education’s Purpose (nytimes.com) Essays on schooling’s role; amid reopen debates.