July 2022 Linkpost

Who knew optimizing for happiness could be as tricky as deciding whether to expand your fishing empire or just enjoy the siesta?

Philosophy & Human Nature

Nobody Optimizes Happiness (dynomight.net)
This essay delves into why people don’t put more effort into maximizing their happiness, despite chasing big goals like wealth or success. Key ideas include hedonic adaptation, where happiness returns to a baseline after changes, though evidence shows it’s not complete (e.g., lower happiness in prison). Psychological insights highlight “local optima,” where short-term discomfort (like starting exercise) prevents long-term gains, and self-control correlates with happiness. Implications suggest focusing on daily life structuring for contentment, rather than abstract pursuits. I would note that this resonates with how we often prioritize distant achievements over immediate well-being, like in the FIRE community where retirees sometimes find freedom boring.

The Story of the Mexican Fisherman (bemorewithless.com)
A classic parable contrasting a content Mexican fisherman’s simple life with an ambitious American banker’s plan for expansion and wealth, only to realize the end goal mirrors the fisherman’s current existence. Themes emphasize simplicity, work-life balance, and contentment over endless growth. Implications highlight how pursuing more can loop back to overlooked present joys, urging reassessment of ambitions. I would observe that this story cuts through the hustle culture noise, reminding us that a full life might already be within reach without the grind.

Patient and Decisive (tynan.com)
This piece stresses the value of patience and decisiveness in life choices, rooted in clear standards. Examples include waiting for the right partner then marrying quickly, or house hunting patiently but acting swiftly on a good fit. Implications for decision-making: patience avoids regret, decisiveness seizes opportunities, but both require realistic criteria to prevent paralysis. My buddy shared this, and they would point out how this mindset turned potential misses into wins, like snagging a home before market spikes.

Perverse Independence Incentives (jefftk.com)
A reflection on parenting pitfalls where refusing help on tasks kids can do themselves discourages independence, creating misaligned incentives akin to a high tax on effort. Examples from experience: a child learning to get cereal but resenting the lost parental aid. Implications for child-rearing: pushing too hard backfires; better to let kids choose independence without pressure, reserving refusal for specific cases. A pal mentioned this, and they would add that adjusting this approach kept the kids motivated without frustration.

Academic Research & Science

Islamic Law and Investments in Children (sciencedirect.com)
This study examines Sharia law’s introduction in northern Nigeria in 2000, finding it reduced infant mortality by 5.6 percentage points (36% of pre-treatment mean) and improved health investments like vaccinations (up 20 points) and breastfeeding (up 2 months). Methodology used a triple-differences framework with Demographic Health Surveys (1999, 2003) and vital statistics, comparing Muslims in Sharia vs. non-Sharia states and vs. Christians. Sample sizes drew from large DHS surveys. Conclusions: Sharia enhanced survival via child protection laws and parental duties. Implications: Religious laws can boost child welfare in low-income settings, informing policy on demographics and religion. Someone shared this, and they would highlight how stricter enforcement amplified effects, showing law’s role in behavior.

Unionization, Product Quality Failures, and Patient Safety (pubsonline.informs.org)
Using product recalls as a measure, this paper finds unions increase quality failures. Key findings: unionization linked to higher recall rates, impacting safety. Methodology: regression analysis on recall data, though specifics like sample sizes not detailed in abstract. Conclusions: Unions may harm product quality. Implications: For management, balancing labor rights with quality controls; policy-wise, reconsider union effects in critical sectors like healthcare. A colleague passed this along, and they would emphasize the need for nuanced views on unions beyond worker protection.

The Effectiveness of Direct Instruction Curricula (journals.sagepub.com)
A meta-analysis from 1966-2016 literature shows Direct Instruction (DI) curricula are effective. Key findings: positive impacts on learning outcomes. Methodology: quantitative mixed models on published studies. Sample sizes varied across analyses. Conclusions: DI improves education results. Implications: Supports scripted, systematic teaching in schools for better achievement. My friend linked this, and they would note its potential to counter progressive education trends favoring discovery learning.

No Evidence for Nudging After Adjusting for Publication Bias (pnas.org)
This paper re-examines nudging studies, finding no evidence of effectiveness after bias correction. Key findings: initial positive effects vanish post-adjustment. Methodology: meta-analysis of studies, adjusting for publication bias. Conclusions: Nudges may not work as claimed. Implications: Challenges behavioral science reliance on nudges for policy, urging rigorous methods. A buddy recommended this, and they would stress how it upends assumptions in fields like public health.

Army Service in the All-Volunteer Era (academic.oup.com)
Using regression discontinuity on AFQT thresholds, army enlistment boosts earnings by over $4,000 annually for 19 years post-application, especially for Black servicemembers ($5,500-$15,000 gains). Sample: all 1990-2011 army applicants linked to tax records. Conclusions: Service aids economic mobility, closing Black-white gaps via stable jobs. Implications: Military as a pathway for disadvantaged groups, informing recruitment policies. Someone shared this, and they would underline racial differences in outcomes.

Technology & Society

Why EAs Are Skeptical About AI Safety (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Interviews with 22 EA skeptics reveal doubts on AGI extinction risks, citing slow progress, missing ingredients like embodiment, and overrating in EA due to resource diversion and echo chambers. Findings: Varied arguments, some refuted but unknown to skeptics. Implications: Need better communication, like argument libraries, to engage doubters. Conclusions: Demand for improved discourse to refine AI safety focus. I would note this exposes community biases, pushing for evidence-based priorities.

Ideological Abuse Series: Effective Altruism (thingofthings.substack.com)
Warns of potential child abuse cover-ups in EA, paralleling other groups, due to consequentialism, unusual sexual norms, and legal distrust. Arguments: High-commitment fosters concealment; no known cases but preparation needed. Implications: Risk to reputation if mishandled. Recommendations: Plan responses, commit against cover-ups. A pal forwarded this, and they would caution that EA’s ethics could tempt rationalizing harm minimization over justice.

My Experiment With Smart Drugs (huffpost.com)
Personal trial of Provigil for productivity: enhanced focus, reading complex books effortlessly, but sleep issues and appetite loss. Implications: Ethical concerns like workplace pressure, unknown long-term effects. Conclusions: Useful sparingly, but unwise routinely. My friend mentioned this, and they would add how it felt like an upgrade but risked addiction.

Economics & Development

Accounting for College Costs (lesswrong.com)
Explores skyrocketing education costs, attributing them to smaller classes and diverse offerings. Key findings: Costs driven by these factors, not just admin bloat. Implications: Policy should address demand for quality experiences. I would observe this demystifies Baumol’s cost disease in education.

The US Education System Gets Decent Value for Money (noahpinion.substack.com)
Debunks myths of inefficiency: Above-average results on TIMSS/PISA (e.g., top in reading), reasonable spending ($13k/student). Findings: Extra funds improve outcomes (e.g., $1.62 household value per dollar). Implications: Supports targeted spending. A colleague shared this, and they would highlight how it counters doomsaying narratives.

Why Your House Was So Expensive (theatlantic.com)
Crisis from material inflation, labor shortages (immigration drop), zoning, NIMBYism (e.g., CEQA lawsuits), no innovation. Data: Rents up fastest in decades; costs tripled 1960s-80s. Implications: Worsens homelessness, fertility decline. Conclusions: Reform zoning, boost immigration. I would note this explains urban woes beyond greed.

The Great Tech Salary Crash (andrenader.substack.com)
2022 stock drops (e.g., Netflix -68%) slashed equity-heavy comp (23-42% of TC). Causes: Valuation falls, policy shifts. Implications: Tests FIRE plans; prepare for bears. Someone passed this, and they would warn of volatility in tech pay.

The Analysis into Leaving San Francisco (andrenader.substack.com)
Numeric model for relocation: Taxes, housing, weather (nice days). Findings: No-tax states best for high earners; weather key (CA coasts top). Implications: Remote work enables savings. Conclusions: Spreadsheet aids decisions. My buddy linked this, and they would say it quantifies lifestyle trades.

Reference & Curiosities

Bricks and the Industrial Revolution (constructionphysics.substack.com)
Historical shift from manual to mechanized brickmaking, but prices didn’t fall (e.g., $350-600/1000 today). Developments: Extrusion, kilns, tax repeal spurred innovation. Implications: Industrialization doesn’t always cheapen heavy materials. A pal shared this, and they would add how transport limited centralization.

Reflections on Sicily (betonit.substack.com)
Observations: Private sector efficient, public disorganized; Mafia legacy lingers. Insights: Culture malleable with incentives; traffic chaotic but safer per mile. Conclusions: Vibrant despite challenges. I would remark on the for-profit/public divide mirroring global patterns.

Learning the Elite Class (aella.substack.com)
Anecdotes from fancy parties: Outsider navigating norms, feeling class gulf. Insights: Elites externally focused; shared unspoken culture. Implications: Alienation despite kindness. My friend noted this, and they would highlight the seductive yet disconnecting vibe.

Why Conventional Wisdom on Education Reform is Wrong (coreykeyser.medium.com)
Challenges spending myths: US tops spending but lags rankings (2018 PISA). Arguments: Oversimplifies; evidence-based shifts needed. Implications: Rethink policy beyond funds. Someone shared this, and they would stress how it debunks easy fixes.