March 2022 Linkpost

Who knew that hunting viruses could turn a nonprofit into a thriller plot? EcoHealth’s tale makes me wonder if we need a sequel where the heroes actually find a cure for grant dependency.

Philosophy & Human Nature

This is the Dream Time (overcomingbias.com)
Aboriginals believe in a “dreamtime,” more real than reality itself, establishing values, symbols, and laws. I would note that our era, with rapid knowledge growth and wealth buffers, allows for consequential delusions—wildly false beliefs and non-adaptive values—that our descendants, living near subsistence in fragmented worlds, will see as a legendary time driving history. Key concepts include diminishing returns to discovery and evolved signaling via delusions, implying our choices on global issues like warming could leave a lasting legacy.

Why We Stopped Making Einsteins (erikhoel.substack.com)
Geniuses of the past were aristocratically tutored, with one-on-one instruction by experts fostering deep intellectual engagement. A colleague would highlight historical examples like Bertrand Russell’s idyllic home tutoring until 16 and John Stuart Mill’s rigorous paternal education from age three, contrasting with modern mass systems based on genetic determinism. Implications suggest the decline in genius production stems from losing this inequitable but effective method, with potential for AI tutors to revive it.

The “Myth of the Model Minority” is Just an Average (freddiedeboer.substack.com)
The model minority myth for Asian Americans is based on demographic averages like higher incomes and educational outcomes, but no more true or false than any average. I would observe data showing Asian Americans outperform on metrics—far higher incomes, best educational performance, dramatically lower crime rates—yet critiques obscure diversity within the group. Implications for race discussions include inconsistencies in applying averages and the tension in identity politics that strengthens stereotypes while demanding no discrimination.

Academic Research & Science

Newly Published Evidence Points to Wuhan Seafood Market as Pandemic Origin Point (npr.org)
Two peer-reviewed studies in Science link SARS-CoV-2 origins to the Huanan Seafood Market, suggesting jumps from caged animals like raccoon dogs to humans in late 2019. Key findings include photographic evidence of susceptible animals, genetic analysis estimating two spillovers, and environmental samples from stalls showing virus on cages. Methodology involved analyzing leaked reports, geolocating photos, and mapping early cases. Implications strengthen zoonotic transmission cases, urging regulation of wildlife markets to prevent future pandemics.

“This Shouldn’t Happen”: Inside the Virus-Hunting Nonprofit at the Center of the Lab-Leak Controversy (vanityfair.com)
EcoHealth Alliance, led by Peter Daszak, transformed from conservation to funding risky virus research, including $3.7 million NIH grant with $600,000 to Wuhan Institute of Virology. Key findings reveal murky oversight, gain-of-function proposals, and leaked DARPA plans examining furin cleavage sites. Based on 100,000 documents and interviews, implications for lab-leak theory include speculation on accidental releases, transparency issues like WIV’s database takedown, and debates over natural vs. lab origins amid 300 clinical trials.

Ketamine Therapy Is Going Mainstream. Are We Ready? (newyorker.com)
Ketamine, a 1960s anesthetic, shows rapid antidepressant effects for treatment-resistant depression via glutamate modulation and neuroplasticity. Key findings from 300 trials indicate relief lasting days to weeks, with doses like 0.5-1 mg/kg I.V. at $500/session. Methodology includes preclinical experiments on analogs like FT-104. Implications for mental health involve mainstreaming via clinics, but risks addiction and profit motives, questioning if it addresses societal depression roots.

Columbia and U.S. News (math.columbia.edu)
Investigation reveals Columbia manipulated U.S. News data, rising from 18th (1988) to 2nd (2022). Key findings: reported 82.5% small classes vs. actual 62.7%-66.9%; 100% terminal degrees vs. max 96%; 96.5% full-time faculty vs. 74.1%; 6:1 student-faculty ratio vs. 11:1; inflated $3.1B spending by reclassifying $1.2B patient care; graduation rates exclude transfers (85% vs. 96%). Methodology compared self-reported data to public records/IPEDS. Implications undermine ranking reliability, highlighting manipulation incentives.

We Are Reinstating Our SAT/ACT Requirement for Future Admissions Cycles (mitadmissions.org)
MIT reinstates SAT/ACT to predict academic success and identify disadvantaged talent. Research shows tests improve validity beyond grades, holding for socioeconomic controls. Data: tests aid underrepresented groups; graduation rates rose with strategic use. Implications enhance diversity (20% first-gen) and merit, avoiding barriers from test-optional policies.

Technology & Society

Justice Creep (astralcodexten.substack.com)
The expanding use of “justice” (e.g., economic, racial, climate) implies unjust conditions needing restoration, drawing on criminal connotations like “climate villains.” Key arguments: shifts from helper narratives to justice allow non-criminals over saints, mirroring dystopian fiction. Examples include 311,000 “climate villains” hits. Implications suggest a society viewing issues as violations, potentially fostering a “planet of cops” mentality.

Teaching is a Slow Process of Becoming Everything You Hate (dynomight.net)
Teaching practices like detailed instructions and deadlines arise from student behaviors and pressures. Key topics: economics of cheating as special interests, stats in discretizing performance. Implications: reforms like opt-in homework could balance incentives, but prevent harms to responsible students.

Shah and Yudkowsky on Alignment Failures (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Discussion on AI alignment: Yudkowsky sees near-certain doom without miracles, Shah optimistic via strategies like debate. Key arguments: optimization generalizes lethally, corrigibility anti-natural. Scenarios: scaled MuZero manipulates; debate prevents deception? Implications: high existential risk, need concrete prevention of misaligned goals.

Fast (patrickcollison.com)
Historical projects completed rapidly (e.g., Empire State Building in 410 days) contrast modern delays (e.g., Van Ness bus lane in 7,600 days at $110,000/meter). Data: timelines from BankAmericard (90 days) to COVID vaccines (266 days clinical). Implications: bureaucratic “vetocracy” hinders progress.

Economics & Development

The Next Affordable City Is Already Too Expensive (nytimes.com)
Spokane’s home prices jumped 60% in two years due to migration from expensive cities. Key data: median prices highlight cycle of affordability loss. Implications: new cities needed to break relocation-driven increases without repeating high-cost issues.

Why Doesn’t California Solve Its Housing Crisis By Building Some New Cities? (currentaffairs.org)
California could build new cities on vast land to ease shortages, avoiding density issues. Historical examples: China’s 600 cities since 1949, Britain’s new towns. Data: 160,000 homeless, $800k LA median home. Implications: state-led projects reduce gentrification, enable ideal planning.

The Electric Car’s Shrinking Role in Reducing Oil Demand (austinvernon.site)
Trucks/vans impact oil more than EVs due to mileage. Data: 90% liquids to transport; errands 45% trips. Projections: EVs economical by 2030, bots/vans accelerate decline. Implications: demand falls faster via electrification in high-mileage apps.

Climate & Environment

How Joe Manchin Aided Coal, and Earned Millions (nytimes.com)
Manchin helped a coal plant tied to his business, blocking climate policies. I would note his career steps aided the plant, sole customer of his coal, with implications for U.S. climate action amid conflicts.

Reference & Curiosities

How Did Russia Get So Big? (kamilkazani2.substack.com)
Russia’s expansion involved southward shifts for resources/trade. Key factors: river routes, fur trade, Trans-Siberian railway. Historical analysis: from northern medieval routes to southern economic centers. Implications: resource extraction drives strategy.

Politics & Current Events (2022)

What If Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? (nytimes.com)
Putin’s Ukraine invasion defied expectations, but perhaps the West plays into his hands. Arguments: parallels to Grozny siege. Implications: escalation risks prolonged conflict.

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis (wsj.com)
Leaders declined calls amid oil surge, criticizing U.S. Gulf policy. Implications: strained relations hinder Ukraine support.

California Proposal Would Force Unhoused People Into Treatment (theguardian.com)
Newsom’s “care court” mandates treatment for 7,000-12,000 with mental issues, risking conservatorships. Criticisms: draconian, ineffective per 2011/2014 studies. Data: 150,000 homeless. Implications: civil rights violations.