August 2021 Linkpost

Who knew owning a home was just renting from the bank with extra steps?

Philosophy & Human Nature

Douthat’s God Argument (overcomingbias.com)
The post evaluates Ross Douthat’s arguments for God’s existence, contrasting a scientific theory of a vast, dumb universe producing life and consciousness through evolution with a God theory positing a perfect, unlimited mind creating the universe with intent. Key points include the universe’s fine-tuning for life, human consciousness, intellectual progress, and mystical experiences as evidence for divine creation, though the author critiques the God theory as incoherent compared to evolutionary explanations. I would note that it’s far easier to believe in an enormous dumb universe than in unlimited minds that can make anything by thinking, yet choose to create limited minds tied to brains.

Planet of Cops (freddiedeboer.substack.com)
This essay critiques the pervasive online culture of mutual surveillance and judgment, where everyone acts as a “cop” by monitoring, reporting, and indicting others across political spectrums. Key social dynamics include conservatives enforcing moralism, the alt-right informing on violations, and progressives rushing to judgment without fairness, eroding trust and community in an “autoimmune disorder” of political culture. A buddy would observe how this constant policing creates a society of guards and prisoners, implying exhaustion and alienation as people inform on each other to avoid being targeted.

Maybe Your Dating Preferences Are Fake (sashachapin.substack.com)
The post argues that many dating preferences are superficial or self-imposed, limiting opportunities for meaningful connections, with personal insights on reevaluating them for broader psychological benefits. I would highlight how these preferences might stem from unexamined assumptions, connecting to human tendencies to self-sabotage in pursuit of idealized matches.

Academic Research & Science

The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market (sciencedirect.com)
Using address history data from Infutor Data Solutions for 52,000 residents in 686 new multifamily buildings across 12 U.S. cities, the study tracks migration chains over six rounds and simulates long-term effects under baseline and conservative assumptions. Key findings show that building 100 new market-rate units leads to 45-70 people moving out of below-median income neighborhoods within three years, with 40% of sixth-round chains reaching these areas; simulations estimate 70% (baseline) or 45% (conservative) of chains benefiting low-income housing. Conclusions affirm that market-rate construction loosens low-income markets short-term, with implications for policies increasing supply to improve affordability indirectly. I would emphasize the diffuse ripple effects across metropolitan areas, supporting YIMBYism as true for urban economics.

Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School (astralcodexten.substack.com)
Drawing from studies like the Benezet experiment (no math until 6th grade, with students catching up), Hurricane Katrina disruptions (improved scores post-charter switch), unschooling research (initial lag but later success), childhood cancer impacts (minimal long-term effects for school-age misses), and immigrant grade skips (early misses wash out by 10th grade), the article uses longitudinal and correlational methods adjusted for confounders. Specific data includes excused absences of 18+ days showing no test score impact, and Google’s four-interview confidence at 86%. Conclusions predict minimal long-term percentile drops (e.g., <5 points for primary misses), implying COVID disruptions won’t devastate learning. A colleague would point out the resilience evidence from historical examples, useful for education policy in crises.

From My Email, on Bioethicists (marginalrevolution.com)
Based on an ethicist’s personal reflection, the post critiques bioethics’ academic incentives favoring novelty over foundational principles, with utilitarian approaches outsourcing to technocrats and care ethics prioritizing personal concern over outcomes. No specific sample sizes, but examples include misaligned publishing pressures. Implications suggest bioethics may disconnect from practical healthcare policy, favoring care displays that avoid exposing strangers to danger. I would note how these incentives reduce ethicists’ unique expertise, boiling issues to cost-benefit analyses.

Technology & Society

Against Cop Shit (jeffreymoro.com)
The post argues for abolishing punitive “cop shit” practices in classrooms, like strict attendance policies and surveillance, which replicate carceral logic and hinder learning. Implications include fostering equitable education by rejecting judgment in favor of support. A friend would add that such practices disproportionately harm marginalized students, drawing from teaching experiences.

Real Estate, Property Rights, and Negotiation (constructionphysics.substack.com)
Examining diffuse property rights distributed among stakeholders like governments and residents, the article discusses negotiation challenges in development, using case studies like Boston’s Museum Towers ($8M+ permitting costs) and general lawsuit rates (30% of NYC deals in court). Methodology involves analyzing asymmetric costs/benefits, with residents opposing due to concentrated negatives. Conclusions note fluid rights complicate mass construction, implying urban planning reforms to balance local resistance with broader benefits. I would observe how owning land is like a controlling interest requiring “shareholder” negotiations, contrasting intuitions of full control.

Economics & Development

Home Ownership Is Still Mostly Renting (mattbruenig.com)
Analyzing personal mortgage data (30-year fixed, >20% down), the post finds 75-78% of costs are rent-like (interest, taxes, maintenance, insurance), with principal yielding low 1.795% returns versus stocks. Data includes home prices rising 84% (2000-2006) then falling 27% (2006-2012), and 8-10% transaction costs. Conclusions tie wealth to risky appreciation from shortages, implying policy shifts as tax benefits wane. Someone would remark that most payments mimic rent, reliant on subsidies like MITD.

Early Retirement (philip.greenspun.com)
Drawing from personal experience retiring at 37 and reader anecdotes, the article covers joys like travel and hobbies, challenges like social isolation and motivation loss, and practicals including high savings (e.g., 12% returns via managers) and estate planning (e.g., $2K trusts). Implications stress genetic happiness factors and structured activities for satisfaction. I would note that retirement reveals personal disorganization without work’s structure, advising skill-building trips over passive vacations.

Why the U.S. Should Give Pay Toilets Another Chance (bloomberg.com)
Historically, 1970s bans aimed at sexism but failed to create free abundance, contrasting Europe’s fee-based model. Economic benefits include better sanitation via small fees, with conclusions urging bans’ lift for improved access. Implications for infrastructure suggest fees could solve shortages, especially for vulnerable groups. I would point out that the vision of free toilets never materialized, leading to neglect.

The Rise of Never-Ending Job Interviews (bbc.com)
Interviews with experts and surveys (e.g., Robert Half: 62% lose interest without two-week feedback) show extended processes (6+ rounds) cause fatigue and withdrawals. Data: Google caps at four for 86% confidence. Conclusions flag indecisiveness as red flags, implying streamlined hiring retains talent. A pal would share how such marathons, like requesting six more rounds, drive candidates elsewhere.

These People Who Work From Home Have a Secret: They Have Two Jobs (wsj.com)
The pandemic enabled remote workers to hold multiple jobs secretly, boosting income but raising ethical questions. Commentary notes this as a societal shift in work flexibility. A colleague would observe how WFH frees employees to multitask, potentially reshaping labor norms.

Reference & Curiosities

Fatal Insomnia (en.wikipedia.org)
This rare genetic disorder causes progressive insomnia leading to death, with symptoms starting mid-life. A friend would find it memorable for highlighting sleep’s critical role in human biology.

Big Stone Found in Rome Gets Everyone All Excited (thedailybeast.com)
A 500-pound marble boundary stone from Emperor Claudius’s era (A.D. 49) marks Rome’s sacred boundary, the first such find in nearly a century. A colleague would note its value in understanding ancient urban planning.

Hollywood Provincialism (tvtropes.org)
U.S. media often centers on Hollywood or New York, assuming American norms globally, useful for critiquing cultural biases. Someone would say it’s a curiosity showing how industries shape perceptions.

Big Applesauce (tvtropes.org)
New York dominates U.S. fiction for events like invasions, reflecting media’s NYC bias. A buddy would add it’s memorable for illustrating creator provincialism.

Politics & Current Events (2021)

How America Failed Afghanistan (theatlantic.com)
Based on personal tours advising forces, the article finds U.S. advising ad hoc without strategy, with data like Taliban capturing a third of capitals post-pullout. Conclusions blame incoherent annual wars, implying better preparation for interventions. A colleague would stress the 20 incoherent wars fought without direction.

Blame the Bobos: How the Creative Class Broke America (theatlantic.com)
Sociological analysis shows the creative class consolidated power, with data like 72% elite college students from rich families and Biden winning counties with 71% economic activity. Conclusions link this to resentment and polarization, implying reforms like national service. A pal would note how they converted cultural attainment into privilege.

Taiwan: The Land That Debates Whether to Defend Itself (nytimes.com)
Young Taiwanese, influenced by Hong Kong’s fate, prepare for potential Chinese invasion amid debates on defense. A colleague would observe the generational shift toward readiness.

Mexico’s Tlaxcala: The State That Resisted the Aztecs (theguardian.com)
On the 500th Spanish conquest anniversary, Tlaxcalans recall allying against Aztecs, preserving indigenous identity. I would note their ancestors’ strategic resistance as a curiosity in colonial history.

China Sets New Rules for Youth: No More Videogames During the School Week (wsj.com)
Banning minors from games Monday-Thursday and limiting weekends, this reflects governance emphasizing productivity. I would compare it to Western views as “insane,” but rooted in millennia of logic.