February 2021 Linkpost
Who knew that extremists struggle with complex tasks? Maybe they should try a puzzle before plotting world domination.
Philosophy & Human Nature
*P(A|B) = [P(A)P(B|A)]/P(B), All The Rest Is Commentary (astralcodexten.substack.com) This piece applies Bayesian reasoning to psychiatric conditions, showing how probabilities and evidence interplay in understanding mental health. I would note that it’s a clever framework for demystifying why some disorders seem linked yet distinct, with practical ties to diagnosis and treatment.
Book Review: The Cult Of Smart (astralcodexten.substack.com) DeBoer’s book critiques education’s role in perpetuating inequality through innate intelligence differences, largely genetic per behavioral studies. Key proposals include lowering the dropout age to 12 to free non-benefiting students and abolishing charters for fraud. Implications challenge meritocracy, advocating equality of results over opportunity, serving managerial class interests.
In Defense Of Myers-Briggs (dynomight.net) Defending MBTI against critics, it correlates strongly with Big Five traits (e.g., E-I with extraversion) and offers better social discussability with neutral axes. Cronbach’s alpha shows comparable reliability (.80-.87 for MBTI vs. .74-.92 for Big Five). Implications: MBTI’s accessibility aids personality talks without Big Five’s discomfort.
Academic Research & Science
People With Extremist Views Less Able To Do Complex Mental Tasks, Research Suggests (theguardian.com) Cambridge study with 330+ US participants used 37 neutral neuropsychological tasks (e.g., memorizing shapes) and modeling. Findings: Extremists think in black-and-white, struggle with complexity, show impulsivity, and poor evidence processing. Conservatives cautious, liberals imprecise. Explains 30-40% ideological variance vs. 8% demographics. Implications: Aids radicalization prevention via cognitive assessments.
The Body Is Far From Helpless Against Coronavirus Variants (theatlantic.com) Immune evolution via B/T cells adapts to variants; B cells mutate in lymph nodes, improving antibodies months post-infection. Method: Nature study tracked survivors. Findings: Vaccines reduce efficacy mildly (e.g., J&J 72% to 57% vs. variants), but protection persists via cross-reactivity. Implications: Vaccines dim risk, not eliminate; rapid rollout curbs mutations.
‘A Game Changer’: Drug Brings Weight Loss In Patients With Obesity (nytimes.com) Novo Nordisk-sponsored trial at 129 centers, 2,000 participants, 68 weeks of weekly semaglutide injections vs. placebo. Findings: 15% average weight loss (vs. 2.4% placebo), >33% lost 20%+. Improved diabetes symptoms, marginal GI side effects. Conclusions: New era for obesity treatment. Implications: Reduces obesity consequences like diabetes.
When Could The United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated (nytimes.com) PHICOR model uses historical data, transmissibility, distancing, 90% vaccine efficacy, 80% vaccination rate. Threshold 70-90%. Baseline: July 2021. Scenarios: 3M shots/day by May (90K deaths); end restrictions April (170K deaths, June threshold); variants (200K deaths, July). Implications: Vaccines reduce severe illness; variants may require boosters.
Technology & Society
WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise (astralcodexten.substack.com) Legible expertise (e.g., WebMD, Fauci) optimizes for power/legal safety over accuracy, listing unprioritized side effects (warfarin: 40K ER visits/year vs. aspirin’s safety). Examples: FDA’s unrelated events (lightning strikes). Implications: Dilutes info; illegible experts (e.g., bloggers) more accurate but unscalable.
Book Review: Fussell On Class (astralcodexten.substack.com) Fussell’s framework: Upper (natural materials, low profile), middle (status anxiety, education), proles (mass culture). Indicators: Flowers (rhododendrons upper-middle), dining times. “Class X” transcends signaling. Applications: Spot class via choices; “prole drift” shifts signals. Connections: Modern shifts to politics/education over aesthetics.
Economics & Development
How Britain Decarbonised Faster Than Any Other Rich Country (economist.com) Britain phased out coal for electricity; no coal burned summer 2020 (first since 1882), four plants closing by ~2023. Methodology: Shift from coal plants. Data: Two-month coal-free period. Implications: Cleaner energy transition, but harder challenges ahead for full decarbonization.
Climate & Environment
The Terrifying Warning Lurking In The Earth’s Ancient Rock Record (theatlantic.com) Paleoclimatology via fossils/cores: CO2 drives change; current 410ppm >3M years. Pliocene (400ppm): 3-4°C warmer, seas 80ft higher. Eocene (600-1400ppm): 13°C warmer, acidification. Models: Clouds/vapor amplify. Implications: Models underestimate; rapid emissions risk extinctions, millennia-long warming.
Reference & Curiosities
Brandolini’s Law (en.m.wikipedia.org) This adage states the effort to refute bullshit exceeds producing it. A colleague would note its relevance to discourse, where debunking requires more rigor, aiding understanding of misinformation’s spread and the value of critical thinking.